Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.044368 2.164829 2.291508 2.435144 2.594088 2.765284 2.964555
2025-08-31 1.867454 2.034002 2.217601 2.436770 2.693661 2.988286 3.356326
2025-09-07 1.761467 1.955790 2.177121 2.451260 2.786623 3.190411 3.724604
2025-09-14 1.655767 1.863976 2.106820 2.415974 2.806748 3.295658 3.973624
2025-09-21 1.568083 1.784909 2.042706 2.378406 2.814584 3.378698 4.194498
2025-09-28 1.490082 1.711512 1.978974 2.333900 2.805987 3.434392 4.377957
2025-10-05 1.458194 1.691946 1.979374 2.369148 2.901959 3.636028 4.790391
2025-10-12 1.431161 1.676127 1.982363 2.406194 3.000947 3.848513 5.245379
2025-10-19 1.403505 1.657501 1.979789 2.434219 3.087652 4.049271 5.708967
2025-10-26 1.362989 1.620049 1.950016 2.422133 3.114335 4.160039 6.036124
2025-11-02 1.325522 1.584767 1.921073 2.408805 3.137032 4.264936 6.366611
2025-11-09 1.286120 1.545243 1.884403 2.381965 3.136612 4.331245 6.634289
2025-11-16 1.248295 1.507015 1.848617 2.355488 3.136384 4.400237 6.924333
2025-11-23 1.222592 1.484111 1.832886 2.357259 3.180079 4.547387 7.398848
2025-11-30 1.202639 1.468104 1.825806 2.370988 3.243104 4.733824 7.994825
2025-12-07 1.168885 1.431996 1.788862 2.337562 3.226370 4.774221 8.271912
2025-12-14 1.136425 1.396665 1.751717 2.301954 3.203444 4.800507 8.521081
2025-12-21 1.103702 1.360040 1.711485 2.259747 3.166656 4.796968 8.697034
2025-12-28 1.095512 1.357287 1.719818 2.293177 3.260830 5.055225 9.604268
2026-01-04 1.088202 1.355404 1.729131 2.328293 3.360135 5.335672 10.665375
2026-01-11 1.078786 1.350149 1.733131 2.354848 3.445852 5.599060 11.777843
2026-01-18 1.059435 1.330112 1.714393 2.343397 3.461167 5.713284 12.463709
2026-01-25 1.040670 1.310412 1.695500 2.330768 3.473280 5.821682 13.172667